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The respite following the ceasefire in Gaza is immense. Across Israel, the liberation of the living hostages has led to broad celebration. Across Palestinian territories, jubilations have commenced as approximately 2,000 Palestinian detainees are being freed – though anguish persists due to doubt about which prisoners are returning and where they will be sent. Throughout Gaza's northern regions, civilians can now reenter sift through wreckage for the remains of an approximated 10,000 unaccounted-for individuals.

Ceasefire Emergence Despite Prior Uncertainty

Only three weeks ago, the probability of a ceasefire appeared remote. Yet it has been implemented, and on Monday Donald Trump journeyed from Jerusalem, where he was applauded in the Knesset, to Sharm el-Sheikh in Egypt. There, he attended a high-level diplomatic gathering of in excess of 20 world leaders, featuring Sir Keir Starmer. The diplomatic roadmap initiated there is due to be continued at a conference in the UK. The US president, cooperating with international partners, successfully brokered this deal take place – despite, not because of, Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Palestinian Statehood Hopes Qualified by Past Precedents

Expectations that the deal marks the opening phase toward Palestinian statehood are reasonable – but, given previous instances, rather hopeful. It lacks a transparent trajectory to independence for Palestinians and threatens separating, for the near term, Gaza from the West Bank. Then there is the total ruin this war has produced. The absence of any timeframe for Palestinian self-governance in Mr Trump’s plan gives the lie to self-aggrandizing allusions, in his Knesset speech, to the “monumental start” of a “golden age”.

The US president could not help himself sowing division and personalising the deal in his speech.

In a moment of respite – with the hostage release, halt in fighting and restart of aid – he chose to recast it as a lesson in ethics in which he exclusively reinstated Israel’s honor after alleged treachery by former US presidents Obama and Biden. Notwithstanding the Biden administration twelve months prior having attempted a comparable agreement: a cessation of hostilities linked to aid delivery and ultimate negotiations.

Substantive Control Vital for Sustainable Agreement

A plan that withholds one side substantive control cannot produce authentic resolution. The ceasefire and relief shipments are to be embraced. But this is not yet political progress. Without mechanisms guaranteeing Palestinian engagement and control over their own organizations, any deal threatens freezing domination under the language of peace.

Humanitarian Priorities and Reconstruction Challenges

Gaza’s people desperately need emergency support – and food and medicines must be the first priority. But rebuilding must not be delayed. Among 60 million tonnes of debris, Palestinians need assistance restoring homes, learning institutions, healthcare facilities, mosques and other organizations destroyed by Israel’s military operation. For Gaza’s transitional administration to thrive, monetary resources must flow quickly and protection voids be filled.

Similar to a great deal of Mr Trump’s resolution initiative, references to an multinational security contingent and a proposed “peace council” are disturbingly unclear.

Global Backing and Future Prospects

Strong global backing for the Palestinian Authority, enabling it to take over from Hamas, is probably the most promising possibility. The immense hardship of the recent period means the humanitarian imperative for a settlement to the conflict is arguably more urgent than ever. But while the ceasefire, the repatriation of the hostages and commitment by Hamas to “remove weapons from” Gaza should be acknowledged as favorable developments, Mr Trump’s record provides scant basis to believe he will deliver – or consider himself obligated to attempt. Short-term relief does not mean that the likelihood of a Palestinian state has been moved nearer.